I really enjoyed Peter Lynch's books and readily acknowledge his greatness as the Fidelity Magellan manager from 1987-1990.
However, there's one belief/tip he gives investors that I frankly disagree with. Lynch is a huge advocate of individual investors "knowing" the industries in which they invest.
I say no way. When you're buying a share in a corporation, you're making a prediction about future earnings, dividend yields, and your resultant capital gains.
You could know everything in the world about Google (GOOG), but that wouldn't have stopped you from being down around $300/share if you got in at the stock's peak. And you don't have to know squat about Proctor & Gamble (PG) to know that a reliable consumer staples stock with a reasonable P/E ratio and a steady dividend yield makes for a great long-term investment.
I have my portfolio and I don't plan to sell anything for years. I am going to buy, hold, and steadily accumulate more and more shares based on dividends and new share purchases. I'll research my stocks from time to time, yes. But for me (a committed buy-and-hold investor) to think that this research is somehow going to drive stock prices up makes about as much sense in my mind as thinking that if I could just learn more about the Patriots' offensive schemes, they would actually win next year's Super Bowl.
That dog isn't going to hunt.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
George Carlin: A Living Anti-Blurk and Great Patriot
I am getting ready to head to bed and will continue a recent tradition of watching George Carlin routines on YouTube.
I'm a huge fan of all comedy, but I'm an especially huge fan of George Carlin.
Here's why: George Carlin has made an entire career pointing out, and making fun of, blurks. A lot of his greatest stuff is picking apart American English vernacular and having fun with popular sayings that get repeated endlessly without any thought coming from the back of the train. He never relies on slapstick or insta-humor but he still manages to *own* his audiences even into what seems to be old age.
And here's the second reason: George Carlin is a true American patriot. And when I say that, I don't mean it in a cheesy, flag-waving and Bible-thumping Ann Coulter sort of way. Instead, I mean it by the definition I understand -- a lover of one's country. All of Carlin's insight -- all his critiques of the silly things that Americans say and do, even his critiques of our foreign policy -- come from a place of deep caring and love. It comes through in all of his routines and in interviews, books, etc.
Oh, and one request to readers -- could you please go to www.urbandictionary.com and give "blurk" the ol' thumbs-up? It'll take but a second and may help the word get published in the hard copy edition.
I'm a huge fan of all comedy, but I'm an especially huge fan of George Carlin.
Here's why: George Carlin has made an entire career pointing out, and making fun of, blurks. A lot of his greatest stuff is picking apart American English vernacular and having fun with popular sayings that get repeated endlessly without any thought coming from the back of the train. He never relies on slapstick or insta-humor but he still manages to *own* his audiences even into what seems to be old age.
And here's the second reason: George Carlin is a true American patriot. And when I say that, I don't mean it in a cheesy, flag-waving and Bible-thumping Ann Coulter sort of way. Instead, I mean it by the definition I understand -- a lover of one's country. All of Carlin's insight -- all his critiques of the silly things that Americans say and do, even his critiques of our foreign policy -- come from a place of deep caring and love. It comes through in all of his routines and in interviews, books, etc.
Oh, and one request to readers -- could you please go to www.urbandictionary.com and give "blurk" the ol' thumbs-up? It'll take but a second and may help the word get published in the hard copy edition.
The 'New Bedford or New Canaan' fallacy
For the record, I find any kind of extremist political views annoying at best, and nauseating at worst. The extreme left and the extreme right both irk me in their own special ways, but I know at the end of the day an individual's political views are his or her own prerogative. For this entry, I would like to have some fun with an extreme-leftist sect known as trustafarians. Trustafarians are people who live off money they haven't earned (i.e. inherited wealth, trust funds, economic outpatient care) and hold extreme leftist political views. As I've already tacitly admitted, someone's political views (as well as their economic status) are really none of my business. However, trustafarians make it my business if and when they try to tell me 'how it is' for the working man. (And if anyone cares to see my W-2 or my 1099s, I would be more than happy to share. Seriously, I'm not kidding about that).
One easy way that trustafarians identify themseleves is by their adherence to what I'll call the "New Bedford or New Canaan" fallacy. At its core, it's the idea that everyone is either extremely well-off (New Canaan) or extremely poor (New Bedford). What trustafarians don't realize is that America has an enormous middle class. They may not be able to comprehend it, but there's a lot of room between New Bedford and New Canaan.
I think this is something that everyone who *works* understands. (And I'll define *work* there not merely as holding a job, but as both having a job AND using that income source to pay for all fixed living costs, other bills, discretionary spending, etc.) It's something I recommend that anyone who wants to make grand declarations about "the working man" ought to try sometime..
One easy way that trustafarians identify themseleves is by their adherence to what I'll call the "New Bedford or New Canaan" fallacy. At its core, it's the idea that everyone is either extremely well-off (New Canaan) or extremely poor (New Bedford). What trustafarians don't realize is that America has an enormous middle class. They may not be able to comprehend it, but there's a lot of room between New Bedford and New Canaan.
I think this is something that everyone who *works* understands. (And I'll define *work* there not merely as holding a job, but as both having a job AND using that income source to pay for all fixed living costs, other bills, discretionary spending, etc.) It's something I recommend that anyone who wants to make grand declarations about "the working man" ought to try sometime..
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Michelle Obama, Opportunity, and America
I'm proud of America. But you already knew that. Cindy McCain is proud of America, and I'm glad to hear it. I believe that Michelle Obama is proud of America as well -- for as much press as her gaffe last week has gotten in the media, I understand the campaign's explanation -- she meant to make a larger point about political involvement and participation these days. And when you're on record speaking in public all day, you're bound to make a few mistakes. Good copy all around. Check-roger.
But here's what I don't get -- why is the 'narrative' from Michelle Obama always about these undefined 'people' (guidance counselors?) who kept telling her not to apply to Princeton and Harvard Law because of low scores? If she had not attended those schools I guess I'd have an easier time seeing her point about opportunity, class, and race in America. But she did! So instead of proving how bad America is, and how conspiratorially elitist it must be, doesn't her personal story show that not to be the case? Doesn't the fact that someone from the South Side of Chicago could get that education, and then go on to make a very healthy six-figure salary in corporate law, show the 'art of the possible?' And shouldn't the message to young people then be, "You can do this --learn how the system works and follow my example" as opposed to a narrative about unfair media portrayals and these undefined 'others' who want nothing more than to see you fail?
I understand there is plenty of time between now and the election. Obama currently beats McCain head-to-head, but voters are fickle and polls can be unreliable. Between now and November, I think one thing that is just not going to resonate with the average American voter is what seems to them like someone coming from the top (and by top I mean a seven-figure net worth and an annual salary several times the median) having (or at least appearing to have) a large chip on the shoulder -- it just doesn't add up. People of all backgrounds who legitimately struggle to meet their families' day-to-day needs just won't buy it, so to speak.
I also understand that we're voting for the candidates and not their spouses. But again, I'm talking about people's perceptions, which will naturally cause the two to meld together. If the Obama campaign doesn't spin this well enough and allow themselves to be the ones to 'frame the perception' it could spell their doom by autumn.
But here's what I don't get -- why is the 'narrative' from Michelle Obama always about these undefined 'people' (guidance counselors?) who kept telling her not to apply to Princeton and Harvard Law because of low scores? If she had not attended those schools I guess I'd have an easier time seeing her point about opportunity, class, and race in America. But she did! So instead of proving how bad America is, and how conspiratorially elitist it must be, doesn't her personal story show that not to be the case? Doesn't the fact that someone from the South Side of Chicago could get that education, and then go on to make a very healthy six-figure salary in corporate law, show the 'art of the possible?' And shouldn't the message to young people then be, "You can do this --learn how the system works and follow my example" as opposed to a narrative about unfair media portrayals and these undefined 'others' who want nothing more than to see you fail?
I understand there is plenty of time between now and the election. Obama currently beats McCain head-to-head, but voters are fickle and polls can be unreliable. Between now and November, I think one thing that is just not going to resonate with the average American voter is what seems to them like someone coming from the top (and by top I mean a seven-figure net worth and an annual salary several times the median) having (or at least appearing to have) a large chip on the shoulder -- it just doesn't add up. People of all backgrounds who legitimately struggle to meet their families' day-to-day needs just won't buy it, so to speak.
I also understand that we're voting for the candidates and not their spouses. But again, I'm talking about people's perceptions, which will naturally cause the two to meld together. If the Obama campaign doesn't spin this well enough and allow themselves to be the ones to 'frame the perception' it could spell their doom by autumn.
Monday, February 25, 2008
"Windows People" and "A/C people"
I would be very wary of any crass generalization about personality types. I would be even warier of any statement that starts with, "There are two types of people..."
That having been said, there are two types of people -- "Windows People" and "A/C People." Don't over-literalize the origins, as it's a metaphor.
Here's where it comes from -- it's a hot (but not unbearably hot) day. Maybe it's the late spring or early summer. It's about 80 degrees with a mostly blue sky and maybe a slight breeze. You're driving around town or hanging out at your place. You could be thinking: a) what a beautiful day -- I'm going to take advantage of it by rolling down the windows and basking in this nice, natural air; or b) I better hermetically seal this car/house/apartment and crank the A/C on full blast before I (or a loved one) runs the risk of breaking a sweat -- yuck, how gross!
From that come the larger themes -- Windows People don't over-plan run-of-the-mill social engagements. They take pleasure in simple things. They're unafraid of public restrooms, door handles, and getting sand from the beach in their car. They don't count calories, they've never had a prescription for something that didn't end in -illin or -cycline, and they don't really give a rip about Britney Lohan-Hilton's boobjobchildimplantdivorcecourt proceedings. They're glad to have good-tasting food and they're not necessarily sure they'd know how to care about the way it's presented at a restaurant.
A/C People, on the other hand, are germaphobic, claustrophobic, and agoraphobic. They can't handle impromptu plan-making and they just plain don't like it when others "touch their stuff." They'll count the tip out to the last decimal place, and won't buy a round for the group until they're reminded to. They'll carry an argument out over years, let alone the appropriate number of seconds or minutes, even after you've conceded that yes, they were right. They were the kid with fifteen perfectly sharp number two pencils sitting next to you who snickered as you got downgraded to an "I" on the 5th grade science quiz for showing up without the proper writing instrument.
Obviously, you can see my bias towards Windows People in the way I've written this. Like I said, it shouldn't be over-literalized (hey, there are times when A/C sure is great) but it's my attempt at making a larger metaphor about the mentality with which people can go through life.
That having been said, there are two types of people -- "Windows People" and "A/C People." Don't over-literalize the origins, as it's a metaphor.
Here's where it comes from -- it's a hot (but not unbearably hot) day. Maybe it's the late spring or early summer. It's about 80 degrees with a mostly blue sky and maybe a slight breeze. You're driving around town or hanging out at your place. You could be thinking: a) what a beautiful day -- I'm going to take advantage of it by rolling down the windows and basking in this nice, natural air; or b) I better hermetically seal this car/house/apartment and crank the A/C on full blast before I (or a loved one) runs the risk of breaking a sweat -- yuck, how gross!
From that come the larger themes -- Windows People don't over-plan run-of-the-mill social engagements. They take pleasure in simple things. They're unafraid of public restrooms, door handles, and getting sand from the beach in their car. They don't count calories, they've never had a prescription for something that didn't end in -illin or -cycline, and they don't really give a rip about Britney Lohan-Hilton's boobjobchildimplantdivorcecourt proceedings. They're glad to have good-tasting food and they're not necessarily sure they'd know how to care about the way it's presented at a restaurant.
A/C People, on the other hand, are germaphobic, claustrophobic, and agoraphobic. They can't handle impromptu plan-making and they just plain don't like it when others "touch their stuff." They'll count the tip out to the last decimal place, and won't buy a round for the group until they're reminded to. They'll carry an argument out over years, let alone the appropriate number of seconds or minutes, even after you've conceded that yes, they were right. They were the kid with fifteen perfectly sharp number two pencils sitting next to you who snickered as you got downgraded to an "I" on the 5th grade science quiz for showing up without the proper writing instrument.
Obviously, you can see my bias towards Windows People in the way I've written this. Like I said, it shouldn't be over-literalized (hey, there are times when A/C sure is great) but it's my attempt at making a larger metaphor about the mentality with which people can go through life.
The Power of Voice Projection
Since college, I've been involved either with the teaching profession or the military, so I've seen public speaking, up-close, on a pretty much everyday basis. I've spoken in public, been spoken to in public, taken courses on speaking in public, prepared briefs in front of a peer audience, helped peers prepare their briefs, etc. Through that time, I've seen the good, the bad, and the ugly. And here's my one piece of advice to any would-be public speaker: project your voice. Whether you're a classroom teacher trying to command discipline and respect, or whether you're a military officer concerned with your bearing and your command presence, the one thing you can do to instantly improve your ability to meet your goal is to raise the volume and enunciate.
Before you work through some kind of workshop-inspired checklist about eye contact with the audience, memorizing your opener, visualization, well-timed pauses, etc. just remember that a person who stands in front of a room and speaks loudly and clearly appears more confident, more knowledgeable, and more charismatic. Even if you have to be *too* loud (that is, louder than you would naturally think is appropriate), that's probably okay, as it means you'll naturally regress downwards a few decibels as you go on. The same thing applies for enunciation -- even if you have to *over-enunciate* while you practice, it'll help you on gameday.
If you still don't believe me, just wait until the next time you have to sit through a day's worth of briefs, presentations, classes or whatever it is that you do in your field. When you see someone mumbling or whispering in front of an audience, do a quick sweep to gauge the rest of the room. Trust me, you're not the only one in pain. Now do the same thing when someone who can project is up at bat. Just by the body language of the people in the room alone, you should be able to quickly see the night-and-day difference.
Before you work through some kind of workshop-inspired checklist about eye contact with the audience, memorizing your opener, visualization, well-timed pauses, etc. just remember that a person who stands in front of a room and speaks loudly and clearly appears more confident, more knowledgeable, and more charismatic. Even if you have to be *too* loud (that is, louder than you would naturally think is appropriate), that's probably okay, as it means you'll naturally regress downwards a few decibels as you go on. The same thing applies for enunciation -- even if you have to *over-enunciate* while you practice, it'll help you on gameday.
If you still don't believe me, just wait until the next time you have to sit through a day's worth of briefs, presentations, classes or whatever it is that you do in your field. When you see someone mumbling or whispering in front of an audience, do a quick sweep to gauge the rest of the room. Trust me, you're not the only one in pain. Now do the same thing when someone who can project is up at bat. Just by the body language of the people in the room alone, you should be able to quickly see the night-and-day difference.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Social Obligations: Shed 'Em
Here is one of the major adulthood lessons I've learned so far -- stop feeling obligated by every social invitation that comes your way. I think a lot of times, people waste significant amounts of their time and money by doing things out of an unfounded sense of obligation. The sad part is the waste of precious time and money, and the ironic part is that no one *really* cares about what you do.
I don't know about you, but I have a VERY long workday. This means that from Monday to Thursday (not counting time allotted for sleep) I almost never have more than a couple free hours at a time. This makes the weekends uber-precious. This also means that all the errands and other general taskers that I need to do during the week inevitably get pushed off to Saturday and Sunday. Now, don't get me wrong -- I love catching up with friends for a pint of beer, a meal, a coffee, or whatever. But at the same time, as I've already stated, my free time is rare, and I treasure it,so I don't necessarily jump on every chance to go out -- especially on the weekdays, but even on the weekends as well.
And here's what I've learned -- no one *really* cares. People may call to see if you're around, but if you're not, or you're busy, or whatever, they'll get along just fine without you. So my advice to readers is this -- shed your unfounded feeling of obligation to say 'yes' to things. Don't feel like dropping half a month's pay to attend some distant cousin's wedding on the opposite coast? Don't go. And guess what? Chances are, no one's going to notice that you're not there.
I don't know about you, but I have a VERY long workday. This means that from Monday to Thursday (not counting time allotted for sleep) I almost never have more than a couple free hours at a time. This makes the weekends uber-precious. This also means that all the errands and other general taskers that I need to do during the week inevitably get pushed off to Saturday and Sunday. Now, don't get me wrong -- I love catching up with friends for a pint of beer, a meal, a coffee, or whatever. But at the same time, as I've already stated, my free time is rare, and I treasure it,so I don't necessarily jump on every chance to go out -- especially on the weekdays, but even on the weekends as well.
And here's what I've learned -- no one *really* cares. People may call to see if you're around, but if you're not, or you're busy, or whatever, they'll get along just fine without you. So my advice to readers is this -- shed your unfounded feeling of obligation to say 'yes' to things. Don't feel like dropping half a month's pay to attend some distant cousin's wedding on the opposite coast? Don't go. And guess what? Chances are, no one's going to notice that you're not there.
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