Saturday, November 9, 2013

Take a Bump...The First One's Free

Check it.  This is admittedly a very small sample size, and it's completely lacking any qualitative analysis... (In other words, I'm not factoring in the chance that someone might leave a nasty voicemail on the Superintendent's phone in which she threatens to rip off sensitive body parts of the Superintendent).

But I've got challengers in BOLD CAPS and first-termers in Italics.

And yes, yes, I know that not all challengers are created equal.  Some have already held elected positions, already run for citywide offices, etc.  But I just defined it in the simplest way I could: "Someone not currently serving on the School Committee."

There will be time later on for more analysis, but for now this may suggest there is a "Challenger Bump" enjoyed by School Committee candidates, followed by a time of great vulnerability (first re-election attempt).

Outliers are highlighted..."outlier" defined here as greater than one standard deviation from the mean in either direction.  If you catch any errors here, lemme know and I'll fix 'em!  Thanks...

Oh, and "AVG VOTES" should say "Avg. # of Votes per Voter."  Labels are missing for 2013, 2011, and 2009, respectively, from left to right.  


Renee said...

Gignac paired up with Roukre for an op-ed on after school programs, didn't help him.

The New Englander said...

Renee, good point...Gignac was also quite strong on the opiate prevention stuff he did with Rep. Golden.

C R Krieger said...

Someone had to go.  Turned out to be Bob.

Any thought to the Geo Anthes quip about those elected folks being his neighborhood group.  Kim and Kristin scored low and are not from The Belvidere.

Regards  —  Cliff